The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger.
His blog, FiveThirtyEight.com, is one of the nation’s most influential sources of political forecasting.
Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too.