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Nate Silver


Books tags: statistics variation
  • The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail-but Some Don't
    Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger. His blog,, is one of the nation’s most influential sources of political forecasting. Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too.

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