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The Signal and the Noise

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The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver

Nate Silver built an innovative system for predicting baseball performance, predicted the 2008 election within a hair’s breadth, and became a national sensation as a blogger.

His blog,, is one of the nation’s most influential sources of political forecasting.

Silver examines the world of prediction, investigating how we can distinguish a true signal from a universe of noisy data. Both experts and laypeople mistake more confident predictions for more accurate ones. If our appreciation of uncertainty improves, our predictions can get better too.

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